Rebeca Cardim Falcao -- Optimizing sampling strategies for sequencing positive respiratory infection tests using mathematical modelling

Sequencing positive respiratory infection tests is essential to understand the circulating strains and identify emerging variants of concern. This study investigated the impact of sample size and frequency on the inferred properties of a novel or emerging variant. A theoretical model explores a two-strain system, where one strain emerges during a period when another strain is dominant. This was conducted using an expanded compartmental SIR-type model. The two key indicators used to assess the quality of inference for each sampling regime were the time to detection of a new strain from its emergence and the estimation of the proportion of the emerging strain relative to the dominant strain.

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10/31/2024 6:50:00 PM