January 16 - Grand Rounds - The Utility of Mathematical Modelling of Serological Data in Assessing the Impact of Vaccination Programs in Kenya

Presenter: Caroline Mburu recently joined the team as a postdoctoral research associate. She will be working on utilising mathematical models to predict future scenarios of Monkeypox outbreaks as well as exploration of optimal surveillance strategies including use of wastewater data for early outbreak detection. She has an academic background in applied mathematics and medical statistics, and her research interest is in vaccine epidemiology and the application of mathematical models in controlling infectious diseases. She did a PhD in Epidemiology and Population Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine which she is hoping to defend in February. Her doctoral thesis was on calibration of statistical and mathematical models using serological data to evaluate the impact of vaccination programs in Kenya. Beyond academia, she is passionate about collaborating with governments and policymakers to effectively translate scientific findings into impactful policies. Summary: Serological surveys have been successfully used to design optimum vaccination strategies in developed countries as they provide a means for directly estimating the levels of population protection against Vaccine Preventable diseases. The aim of my PhD was to utilise a combination of serological data and mathematical modelling approaches across different pathogens to develop locally tailored interventions for disease prevention and control. Specifically, I first described the immunological profile for Measles and Rubella and used these profiles to disentangle the relative contribution of infection, routine vaccination and SIAs to Measles seroconversion in Kenyan children. I then evaluated utility of SIA to mitigate Measles outbreak in the post pandemic period. I also described the immunological profile for Diphtheria, Pertussis and Tetanus to assess the need for a booster dose and used the Tetanus immunity profiles to estimate the effective immunisation coverage. Finally, I described the prevalence of Hepatitis B in Kenyan children using data from a series of hepatitis B markers and later evaluated the effectiveness of the current vaccination program.

Mediasite Presenter

1/16/2024 8:00:00 PM